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A |       据媒体周二援引知情人士报道,Claude聊天机器人开发商Anthropic 或将向投资者表示,其总可寻址市场(TAM)超过30万亿美元。  这一数据将超越 SpaceX 此前给出的28.5万亿美元的TAM估算,写下新的记录。  这个数字有多惊人?据媒体援引FactSet的数据,标普1500指数中191家科技公司去年的营收之和为2.4万亿美元。

B |     New York-traded West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled down 97 cents, or almost 1%, at $98.53. The intraday low was $95.17, a bottom not seen since the week ended April 8. In just two sessions, the US crude benchmark had lost almost $15 or 14%.,Citigroup says WTI could collapse to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and slump to $45 by end-2023 if a demand-crippling recession hits.,London-traded Brent crude, settled at $100.69, down $2.08 or 2.02%. Earlier, it broke below the $100 mark the first time since April 25, hitting a session low of $98.59. Like WTI, Brent has also lost almost $15, or 13%, over two days of trading.,West May Use Proposed Russian Oil Price Cap Scheme for Gas Price, Von Der Leyen SaysYesterday, 12:20 GMT,A cluster of economic data of late has suggested that the United States may be headed for an economic slowdown - possibly a recession - as the Federal Reserve embarks on the most aggressive rate hikes in a generation to tame inflation roaring at 40-year highs.,A closely-watched gauge of the US services sector fell to its lowest in 20 months in June.,Separately, the US Labor Department signaled that the red-hot labor market may be starting to cool. Job openings, as measured by its monthly survey, fell in May, to a level of 11.254 million that is still high by historical comparison.,The job openings data came ahead of Friday’s more important June non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show a smaller jobs growth compared with May. Economists say some 268,000 payrolls were probably added last month - versus the 390,000 in May - holding unemployment at 3.6% for a third straight month. A jobless rate of 4% or below is seen by the Federal Reserve as full employment.,“While our view remains that higher consumer prices are required to balance the oil market this summer, we acknowledge that significant and large shocks continue to distort fundamentals,” Goldman Sachs said in an energy market outlook.,Blockage of Russian Bond Payments to Erode Dollar Dominance, French Economist Says27 June, 15:29 GMT,A rocketing dollar ahead of more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, or Fed, has also shaken the roots of the energy rally seen since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February and the resulting sanctions on Moscow.,The Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against six major currencies, continued its ascent from overnight, leaping to above 107, its highest since December 2002. The dollar has rallied with few stops since November last year on bets of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, or Fed, which has just started delivering on those expectations.,The drone of recession talk is expected to get louder across the United States after the Atlanta division of the Federal Reserve forecast last week a second straight quarter of economic decline for the year. The Commerce Department officially reported a 1.6% economic contraction in the first quarter.,The Federal Reserve, in minutes of its June policy meeting released on Wednesday, said it saw a real danger of high inflation becoming entrenched in the US economy and the only way to balance runaway prices with growth was to have appropriate interest rate hikes.,The central bank is expected to push ahead with another three-quarter percentage point interest rates hike this month, potentially taking key lending rates to between 2.25% and 2.5% range from the 0 - 0.25% range they stood at in February.。而Anthropic声称的潜在市场规模是这一总和的12倍以上。

C |   TAM是指在取得100%市场份额的情况下,某项产品或服务所能获得的总营收机会。  据报道,Anthropic在量化其TAM时,将AI模型能够完成的全部工作量纳入了考量。

D |   庞大的TAM将为Anthropic 的估值和大规模基础设施投入提供支撑,并成为其计划中的IPO 背后增长叙事的核心支柱。而快速成长的科技初创公司通常会在上市时提出TAM,藉此说明未来仍有庞大扩张空间,从而吸引投资者的兴趣。

E |   马斯克旗下火箭企业SpaceX在今年5 月提交的IPO文件中将其28.5万亿美元的TAM 称作“人类历史上规模最大的TAM”,其中26.5万亿美元来自AI商机。  回顾历史可以发现,过去十年,大型IPO中的潜在市场规模(TAM)数字经历了大幅膨胀。优步在2019年的IPO中声称其潜在市场规模为6万亿美元,而WeWork在其最终放弃的IPO中也宣称潜在市场规模达3万亿美元。这些数字如今与SpaceX的28.5万亿美元和Anthropic预计的30万亿美元以上相比,显得微不足道。  需要指出的是,相关估算高度依赖产业数据与投资银行模型,本就带有相当程度的假设。由于AI可能重塑众多产业,预测其长期影响更加困难,这也使Anthropic提出的30万亿美元TAM面临可信度考验。  史诗级IPO前频释炸裂数据  在Anthropic进行史诗级的IPO之前,近期释出的一系列数据显示,这家公司的财务状况正爆发式增长。  据媒体本月早些时候援引知情人士报道,Anthropic内部预计其2028年的营收将达到约1900亿至2000亿美元。

F |   该公司还向投资者披露,截至7月底,其年化营收已突破650亿美元,较今年5月的470亿美元增长约38%。  此外,据业内人士近日看到的文件,Anthropic在向潜在投资者推介时透露,公司第二季度的营业收入超过115亿美元,较去年同期实现了约14倍的巨幅增长。

G |   这些数据将为投资者评估Anthropic价值提供关键参考。  除TAM可能超越SpaceX外,Anthropic的IPO规模与估值也可能刷新纪录。知情人士透露,公司可能寻求募资最高1000亿美元,高于SpaceX的860亿美元,目标估值则约为2万亿美元,也超过SpaceX上市时的1.77万亿美元。

H |   Anthropic的上市计划仍在讨论,相关数字可能调整。公司预计未来数周公开IPO财务文件,最快可能于9月或10月初挂牌。(文章来源:财联社)。

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Published on:09:16:58


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